Seasonal forecast of tropical cyclone activity in the South-West Indian Ocean
Date and time: 
Thu, 2015-12-03 14:29
Location / Venue: 

Department of Meteorology

In a global context under the influence of a strong El Niño episode, the most likely scenario for the next cyclone season 2015-2016 tends to call for a cyclone activity that would be lower or close to the norm over the South-West Indian Ocean basin.

We estimate that there is a 70% probability that the number of tropical storms and tropical cyclones will be between 6 and 10 during this 2015-2016 cyclone season. There is also a 20% probability that the next season will be of little activity (number of systems ≤ 5) and a 10% probability that the activity will be close to the norm or higher than it (number of systems ≥ 11). It should be recalled that, on average, ten named phenomena are observed during a cyclone season, of which almost half of them develop into tropical
cyclones.

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Expiry Date: 
Sun, 2018-12-30 14:29
Contact Person: 

Dr. Alfred Opere